تقرير حول اداء زوج اليورو دولار
في جلسة تداول الثلاثاء 19/11
On Monday, EUR/USD staged a gradual intraday rebound in line with the overall performance of the dollar. There were few eco data releases. The softer than expected tone of Fed’s Yellen testimony last week before the US Senate apparently tilts the balance in EUR/USD to the disadvantage of the dollar.
Intraday, the dollar came gradually under pressure in Asia and this trend persisted well into the US trading session. There was little in the way of hard news. Technical considerations prevailed. Even so, dollar weakness was visible in most major USD cross rates. Even USD/JPY hardly profited from a new up‐leg of equities in Asia and Europe. CFTC figures on Friday showed that the market was long dollar. Maybe investors had some unwinding of dollar longs to do. During the US trading session, the dollar decline initially accelerated. EUR/USD tested first resistance at 1.3548. The NAHB housing index was marginally weaker than expected, but at the time of the publication, the dollar had already reached its intraday lows. Later in the session, EUR/USD reversed a big part of the intraday gains. Positive comments from Fed’s Dudley on the US economy, helped the dollar regaining some ground. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.3506, only marginally higher from the 1.3496 close on Friday. USD/JPY closed the day even in negative territory (99.99 compared to 100.19). The pair failed to profit from a decent equity gains in Asia and in Europe, but was held back by a late session setback in US equities.
This morning, Asian equities show a mixed picture. Yesterday’s risk‐on sentiment is fading, pushing USD/JPY further below the 100 mark. The picture for EUR/USD remains balanced as the pair is back in the 1.35 area. Today, the calendar is again thin. In Europe, markets will keep an eye at the ZEW investor sentiment. A further rise from 52.8 to 54 is expected. We expect a good figure, but it is unlikely to inspire a directional move in EUR/USD. In the US, there are no data with market moving potential. Investors will also keep a close eye on speeches of Fed’s Evans (dove) and Bernanke. The latter probably won’t openly disagree with the soft tone of his successor last week at the Senate hearing.
In a day‐to‐day perspective we expect further consolidation in EUR/USD around current levels. Yesterday’s rejected test of the 1.3548 resistance suggests that a topside break might be difficult without new info. The price action in USD/JPY also shows signs of fatigue. The 100.61 looks rather tough short‐term. A break would be technically highly significant, but apparently the dollar is not in good enough shape to force such a move. A softening of the risk‐on rally might push the pair back in the recent sideways trading range.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD rally ran into resistance after touching a new correction top at 1.3832. The pair finally fell prey to profit taking in the first days of November, unwinding overbought conditions. The pair tested a first support at 1.3462, but it was only when the ECB cut rates that the pair went sharply south. The break below the 1.3462 support called off the shortterm euro positive momentum and opens the way for a bigger correction with the 1.3105 correction low as the next obvious target. On the topside the correction top at 1.3832 is the new line in the sand. Intermediate resistance stands at 1.3548.
On Monday, sterling fell prey to some moderate profit taking, primarily against the euro. Cable lost also a few tics. There was no high profile news and volumes in both cross rates were low. On the screens, there was some debate on the risks for a potential bubble in the UK housing market. Rightmove house prices declined on a monthly basis (‐2.4%) and the institution saw little signs of a bubble. Later in the session, a BOE survey showed that UK banks see increasing risks from housing. This debate might have been an excuse to take some profit on sterling longs. Even so, the price pattern in EUR/GBP was quite similar to what happened in the EUR/USD headline pair. EUR/GBP set an intraday top just below 0.84 late in Europe, but reversed part of the gains later in the session.
EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8384 , compared to 0.8374 on Friday evening.
Today, there are again no important data in the UK. So, more technically inspired trading might be on the cards for EUR/GBP. Sterling remains well bid, but we expect further consolidation after its recent rebound. There is additional news needed for EUR/GBP to go for a retest of the 0.83 barrier.
Global context. Late October, the downward correction of sterling had finally run its course. Two weeks ago, the pair tested the high profile 0.8334 (previous correction low) support, but couldn’t sustain. A technical rebound kicked in as the EUR/GBP cross had to work off oversold conditions. Last week, the pair showed some sharp swings, but finally the balance titled again in favour of sterling. We keep a sterling positive bias longer term and look to sell EUR/GBP into strength. 0.8300 is the next high profile target on the charts.