[Зиюс]

	المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Зиюс

	فى الفترة الحالية بنوك كتير خسرت صفقات شراء الدولار الامريكى و خرجوا منها على خسارة الأسبوع اللى فات و على رأسهم بنك باركليز انك تتعلم من أخطائك ده شئ رائع و انك تتعلم من أخطاء غيرك ده شئ عظيم ناس كتير بتسأل البنوك بتشتغل ازاى أو بيقولوا ان البنوك بيتشتغل زى كده و كده و هما لا يدرون عنهم شيئا دى توصية بنك بى ان بى باريبا لبيع EURUSD يوم 25 مارس طبعا ضربت الاستوب الاسبوع اللى فات We are establishing a short EURUSD trade recommendation at 1.0990, targeting a retreat to 1.04 and set our stop at 1.1165. The USD has retreated significantly in the aftermath of last week’s Fed statement, following US front-end yields sharply lower as markets focused on the dovish shift in Fed projections. However, we believe the liquidation of USD positions so far has largely been confined to shorter-term market participants and momentum traders. Longer term oriented macro accounts are unlikely to have capitulated on their high conviction bullish USD views. Our positioning indicators suggest EURUSD positioning has not become stretched, and presumably positions have been reduced even further in this latest push higher. Moreover, we believe eurozone investors are likely to remain reliable sellers of EUR, as low nominal rates at home and rising inflation expectations force a shift in asset allocation into foreign assets. We also see scope for markets to rebuild pricing for Fed policy tightening. In the aftermath of the Fed decision, a first rate hike is no longer fully priced until October and only one hike is fully priced by year-end. The shift came in reaction to the revision lower for Fed rate, GDP and long-term unemployment projections. However, with most FOMC members still projecting two rate hikes before year-end, we think it will take a significant deterioration in labour market data or further weakness in inflation to prevent earlier tightening. We suspect Fed speakers and data in the weeks ahead are likely to guide markets back to pricing for September lift off. While the Fed does appear to be more sensitive to currency market dynamics, we think a move to our target of 1.04 in EURUSD would not prevent policy tightening in September. حد يقدر يعرف ان كانوا هما خطأ و ايه الخطأ اللى عملوه ؟!!!!

المصدر لمن يسأل
Email Authentication

[Зиюс]

	المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Зиюс

	فى الفترة الحالية بنوك كتير خسرت صفقات شراء الدولار الامريكى و خرجوا منها على خسارة الأسبوع اللى فات و على رأسهم بنك باركليز انك تتعلم من أخطائك ده شئ رائع و انك تتعلم من أخطاء غيرك ده شئ عظيم ناس كتير بتسأل البنوك بتشتغل ازاى أو بيقولوا ان البنوك بيتشتغل زى كده و كده و هما لا يدرون عنهم شيئا دى توصية بنك بى ان بى باريبا لبيع EURUSD يوم 25 مارس طبعا ضربت الاستوب الاسبوع اللى فات We are establishing a short EURUSD trade recommendation at 1.0990, targeting a retreat to 1.04 and set our stop at 1.1165. The USD has retreated significantly in the aftermath of last week’s Fed statement, following US front-end yields sharply lower as markets focused on the dovish shift in Fed projections. However, we believe the liquidation of USD positions so far has largely been confined to shorter-term market participants and momentum traders. Longer term oriented macro accounts are unlikely to have capitulated on their high conviction bullish USD views. Our positioning indicators suggest EURUSD positioning has not become stretched, and presumably positions have been reduced even further in this latest push higher. Moreover, we believe eurozone investors are likely to remain reliable sellers of EUR, as low nominal rates at home and rising inflation expectations force a shift in asset allocation into foreign assets. We also see scope for markets to rebuild pricing for Fed policy tightening. In the aftermath of the Fed decision, a first rate hike is no longer fully priced until October and only one hike is fully priced by year-end. The shift came in reaction to the revision lower for Fed rate, GDP and long-term unemployment projections. However, with most FOMC members still projecting two rate hikes before year-end, we think it will take a significant deterioration in labour market data or further weakness in inflation to prevent earlier tightening. We suspect Fed speakers and data in the weeks ahead are likely to guide markets back to pricing for September lift off. While the Fed does appear to be more sensitive to currency market dynamics, we think a move to our target of 1.04 in EURUSD would not prevent policy tightening in September. حد يقدر يعرف ان كانوا هما خطأ و ايه الخطأ اللى عملوه ؟!!!!

المصدر لمن يسأل
Email Authentication